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    Average Prediction

    This is not any one player. Rather, it is the average of all players. For many questions, the average of several different guesses is often the most accurate, so beating the Wisdom of the collective might be tough!

    Here’s the aggregated drop out order:

    Joe Biden Winner
    Elizabeth Warren
    Bernie Sanders
    Pete Buttigieg
    Michael Bloomberg
    Andrew Yang
    Amy Klobuchar
    Tulsi Gabbard
    Tom Steyer
    Cory Booker
    Marianne Williamson
    John Delaney
    Deval Patrick
    Michael Bennet 1st drop

    Prediction

    Joe Biden Winner
    Elizabeth Warren
    Bernie Sanders
    Pete Buttigieg
    Michael Bloomberg
    Andrew Yang
    Tulsi Gabbard
    Amy Klobuchar
    Tom Steyer
    Cory Booker
    Marianne Williamson
    John Delaney
    Deval Patrick
    Michael Bennet 1st drop

    Contest Hosts

    Last Updated

    April 8, 2020

    🏆 Prizes 🏆

    1st Place: Apple iPad

    2nd Place: $100

    3rd Place: $50

    all drop out predictions in one chart see how players have moved up and down in rank each round interactive win scope calc, based on remaining possible outcomes
    Joe Biden Winner
    Bernie Sanders
    Tulsi Gabbard
    Elizabeth Warren
    Michael Bloomberg
    Amy Klobuchar
    Pete Buttigieg
    Tom Steyer
    Deval Patrick
    Michael Bennet
    Andrew Yang
    John Delaney
    Cory Booker
    Marianne Williamson 1st drop

    Between December 3rd and January 7th, contest participants were asked to predict the order in which the remaining 14 Democratic primary candidates would drop out. Because players were guessing drop out order and not actual primary performance, they had to consider factors such as candidates’ finances, desire to preserve their reputations, or even how stubborn they are.

    Scoring is calculated using Kendall tau distance, which compares how similar any two ranked lists are. For example, I predicted the candidates would drop out in this order: Sanders 1st, Biden 2nd, Warren 3rd, but let’s say they actually end up dropping out in this order: Biden 1st, Sanders 2nd, Warren 3rd. In that case, my Kendall tau score would be 1, because 1 swap would be needed to make my rank order match reality’s rank order. The number of swaps needed to make a player’s list match reality is their Kendall tau score.

    The lowest possible Kendall tau score is 0 (perfectly predicting reality); the highest possible score in this case is 91 (perfectly failing). I converted all scores to a 0-1 scale (where 0 is still the most similar and 1 is the least similar) using the formula: Kendall tau score / (14 candidates * (14 candidates - 1) / 2.

    Your accuracy percentage represents how close you are to a perfect score. It is calculated by: 100 - 100 * your (0-1 scaled) Kendall tau score.