Start Of 2008 - 2024 Presidential Campaigns, Relative To Midterms
One week has passed since voters went to the polls for the 2022 midterm election. Ballots are still being counted in nine House races. The Senate race in Alaska is continuing to a second round of ranked-choice voting, to be finalized in late November. The Senate race in Georgia advanced to a runoff election, to be held in early December.
And yet, the next nationwide election has already begun: Donald Trump announced his candidacy in the 2024 presidential election tonight.
To be clear, seven days after a midterm election is unusually early to launch a presidential campaign. Since the 2008 presidential primaries, candidates have waited a median of 164 days following midterms to jump into a presidential race.
However, Trump’s timing isn’t entirely unprecedented: the record for the earliest announcement belongs to John Delaney, who officially began his 2020 bid in July of 2017.
Andrew Yang’s 2020 and Mike Gravel’s 2008 campaigns also began before midterm elections, and Richard Ojeda’s 2020 campaign began just five days after the 2018 midterms.
Notably, each of these former candidates known for early announcements are Democrats, giving Trump the title of the earliest announcing Republican since at least 2008.
This fits a larger pattern: Democratic candidates for president announce a median of 123 days after midterms, while Republicans wait 202 days.
Now that Trump has kicked off the 2024 primary, the big questions are: who's next and when will we know?
And the answer is a resounding...
🤷 ❓
Predicting 2024 entries would most likely be in vain. Finding meaningful patterns in election data is rare, given small sample sizes and the fact that each cycle is so unique…besides the fact that every election somehow ends up being “the most important election in our lifetime.”
Take the 2008 and 2012 primaries as an example: in 2008, nearly the entire field declared within 170 days following the 2006 midterm election. Four years later, the first candidate waited 190 days.
One thing is clear: while Trump is unusually early in his announcement, he’s not exactly an outlier either. Don’t be surprised if more candidates announce in the coming months. But also don’t be surprised if no one else throws their hat in the ring for another six months. Honestly, it’s a crap shoot.
Happy primary season everyone. May your Thanksgiving dinner policy debates be lively.